Does everything bad always happen to you? It probably doesn’t.

June 16, 2023

Does everything bad always happen to you? It probably doesn’t.

In 1952, American journalist John Sack described an “ancient mountaineering principle”:

Anything that can possibly go wrong, does.

In 1949, British physicist Robert A.J. Matthews coined the term “Murphy’s Law”:

The familiar version of Murphy’s law is not quite 50 years old, but the essential idea behind it has been around for centuries.

In 1908 (not quite 50 years prior), British magician Nevil Maskelyne wrote:

It is an experience common to all men to find that, on any special occasion, such as the production of a magical effect for the first time in public, everything that can go wrong will go wrong.

In 1877, British engineer and sailor Alfred Holt is reported to have said:

It is found that anything that can go wrong at sea generally does go wrong sooner or later, so it is not to be wondered that owners prefer the safe to the scientific…

The development of Murphy’s Law demonstrates a well-known principle of psychology: Negativity Bias. While both positive and negative experiences are of equal magnitude in a human’s life, we do not remember positive and negative experiences with the same salience. As a result we, skew our decisions in light of what we think will be tragedy.

It’s so sad, because the original version of the “law” is actually quite benign and redundant. Mathematician Augustus De Morgan, in 1866:

The first experiment already illustrates a truth of the theory, well confirmed by practice, what-ever can happen will happen if we make trials enough.

Whatever can happen will. Duh.

Quick Hits

Murphy's Law

Posted by:

Landon Whitsitt

2 responses to “Does everything bad always happen to you? It probably doesn’t.”

James Wendelken

June 17, 2023 at 11:17 am

Actually we physicians are experts at practicing the effects of the Murphy Law concept when providing to our patients fully “informed consent “. We then engage what our physician organizations ask us to engage with the patient a process entitled “ shared decision making “ therapeutic plans. I am certain everyone who has undergone any treatment, invasive procedures, medication has read , asked to sign or verbally acknowledge they understand that in some form Murphy’s law is a real phenomenon. My opinion is the pervasive use of the process in many ways is an effort to decrease professional/ institutional liability. The secondary effect is to justify the recommendation of various therapies which can result in what is usually described as an adverse outcome.
Intention of the treatment is really the important discussion which should be the priority in discussions with the patient. Just my humble observation after 51 years of practicing medicine.

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1. Landon Whitsitt
  
  June 17, 2023 at 11:54 am
  
  I’m grateful for this observation. I feel it reinforces my point that we take eventualities and assume the worst. That makes complete sense in our litigious society, but I fear it doesn’t make for terribly whole humans.
  
  Anyway, thanks for sharing your wisdom.
  
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